- My book: Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences (Wiley; Amazon).
- 111th U.S. Senate ideal point estimates:
- 111th U.S. House ideal point estimates:
- Next Australian election, Centrebet prob. of ALP win: 0.78 (2010-02-10, time-series)
The ABC’s online political correspondent Emma Rodgers reports on goings-on from the Coalition party room:
Mr Abbott’s comments were met with a hearty “here here” from many MPs in the room.
No. I’m sure what was said was “hear, hear”.
It is often incorrectly spelled “here here”, especially on websites and IM.
Bruce Western (Harvard Sociology) and I will be running a week-long training workshop in quantitative methods through the United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 31 May – 4 June, 2010. Details here.
The winter chill has really set in, here in the Northern Hemisphere…. Roy & HG off-air until sometime in the New Year. Ugh.
ABC Online is great, especially for the ex-pat crowd chasing news and current affairs from Australia.
Offshore, we can’t see iView, and rely on either web sites of individual shows or iTunes offerings; Lateline and the ABC Fora offerings are two popular iTunes vodcasts in our household.
The ABC’s iTunes publishing latter seems very hit-or-miss, depending on the show, which would seem to suggest that publishing to iTunes isn’t being handled in a centralized manner at the ABC. Another sign that this may be the case is the variation in naming schemes for the different XML feeds across the different shows.
The 7.30 Report sometimes briefly works in iTunes, but usually not: e.g.,
And Insiders has no iTunes option at all.
I guess if you want to drive eyeballs to the individual program sites, having a broken iTunes setup or none at all is a good way to proceed.
It would seem that the Coalition at 5.15 was too attractive a price for some. The Coalition is back in to 4.10 and the implied probability of a Labor win is now about .77.
That is a big 24hr movement, the biggest since I’ve been looking at these data carefully.
.77 is still well north of where we wound up on Election Eve 2007; about .72, with Centrebet pricing the Coalition at 3.65.
Look for some movement (or not) as some post-Abbott/post-ETS defeat polls come in.
I wonder if we will have a more active December/January period than usual, in terms of polling and betting market activity?
In the wake of this morning’s events in Canberra, Centrebet’s price on Labor has come into 1.14 to the Coalition’s 5.15 (implied probability of Labor win is .82).
As of 9am (the start of the FPLP meeting) the prices were 1.16 to 4.75 (.80).
On Nov 1: 1.24 to 3.90 (.76).
Oct 1: 1.27 to 3.60 (.74).
Sep 1: 1.33 to 3.20 (.71).
(Mock?) outrage on the ABS’s Insiders program that a Galaxy poll had been “weighted and projected” to be representative of the Australian population. The noted scientist/statistician Andrew Bolt took great umbrage at this, describing it as “dodgy” as the evidence for anthropogenic global warming; that didn’t stop Bolt from going on to use the poll’s findings to support his criticism of Turnbull.
Andrew & Co: get over it. All polls are weighted (although I’m not sure what “projected” means in this context, maybe to get coverage of non-sampled areas?). The one interesting factor here is the small sample size, which after weighting results in an effective sample surely much smaller than 400.
On the substance, I’d note that while much is made of differences between ALP and Coalition voters on climate change issues (as I did in my work for the USSC), at no point in Glenn Milne’s writeup of the poll is the actual ALP/Coalition vote split reported. That is, the problem isn’t so much that Coalition voters look different from Labor voters or the population at large, but the fact that Coalition voters are so comprehensively outnumbered by Labor voters in virtually every recent poll of the Australian electorate (and that one way to boost Coalition vote share might be to support the ETS).
And unsurprisingly, a fair amount of movement in the betting markets. The Centrebet prices as of this morning (Sydney time) correspond to an 80% chance that Labor wins the next election. That is up from about 68% as recently as late August.
A few observations on the climate change issue currently wrecking havoc in Australian politics.
The following table comes from a report I did for the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney; a link and discussion appears below the fold.
Terry Durack gets it about right re the current state of Sydney dining and cuisine…
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