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American National Election Study

Sunday February 28, 2010

Filed under: politics,statistics — jackman @ 10:14 am

And I guess that it is official now, we’re off and running with the ANES 2010-2013. The grant is about $10M over 4 years, and we’ve got the following big pieces of new science/data collection in the works:

We will be using the Online Commons as a mechanism for soliciting/discussing proposals about content. We also have a large and distinguished Board of Advisors. Formal announcements and details about both of these are imminent, and will appear on the project web site.

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Brown (R-MA) has an ideal point estimate

Wednesday February 24, 2010

Filed under: politics,statistics — jackman @ 5:05 pm

After 3 or 4 votes on non-unanimous roll calls, I have an ideal point estimate for Brown (R-MA). No surprise, he is the most moderate Republican, although the 95% credible interval is wide given the small number of votes cast thus far.

See the daily update graph here.

A snippet:

Screen shot 2010-02-24 at 5.03.26 PM.jpg

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“Goodbye to Jo Puccini”

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 3:27 pm

A nice piece by Mediawatch host Jonathan Holmes on the job of an EP at a news/current-affairs TV show. Jo Puccini was a researcher/producer for my wife Janet Gibson back in the day (Today Tonight, Witness). Now Jo is off to Lateline. Hooray.

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Fab Handbag for Michelle

Tuesday February 23, 2010

Filed under: general — jackman @ 12:59 pm

From our dear friend Jean-Pierre Khoury in Sydney (of Robert Burton Design in Woollahra).
And also available in SF. And at Kitchenworks.com.

201002231258.jpg
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minimalist movie posters (DIN)

Filed under: type — jackman @ 12:26 pm

DIN used as the typeface on some “minimalist” movie posters. Cute. Via Gruber, via curved white

201002231226.jpg
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Labor at a 5 month low at Centrebet (but same as 2007)

Sunday February 21, 2010

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 2:19 pm

Labor has eased to 1.28 (Coalition 3.55) at Centrebet (implied probabiity of Labor winning is .73). Labor was briefly at 1.14 (Coalition 5.15, probabiity .82) on Dec 2 2009 at the height of the Coalition leadership fracas.

Labor was last at 1.28 on September 8, 2009. See the graph of Centrebet prices I update daily (thumbnail below).

For the record, Centrebet had Labor at 1.29 on the morning of the 2007 election (Coalition 3.65, probability .74). This reflected some late movement back to the Coalition after the last Newspoll had the race tightening (Labor was at 1.21 at Centrebet on Friday morning, Nov 23, 2007).

That is, we’re beginning this election year (and, some might say, the 2010 election campaign) right where Labor was at the 2007 election.

Alpwinprob-1

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Plane crash East Palo Alto

Wednesday February 17, 2010

Filed under: flight nerdery,general — jackman @ 8:37 am

Power out in Palo Alto this morning. Radio says small plane crash took power lines in East Palo. Houses on fire.

I’m betting the plane had just departed KPAO in the fog and hit the high tension lines that cross the bay just north of the airport. In which case the outage could be widespread and longlasting.

Traffic lights on in Palo.

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SPC Shorncliffe

Tuesday February 16, 2010

Filed under: Australian Politics,general — jackman @ 2:12 am

I attended St Pat’s 1974-82. My senior class was just 19 guys. Each of my two brothers went to St Pat’s, as did two of my uncles. My grandfather helped found the school. In short, my family has a long history with the place, and the surrounding suburbs: we love visiting Shorncliffe and looking in on SPC whenever we’re back in Brisbane. And so the news of the last day or so re the death of Elliot Fletcher is just gut wrenching.

It is difficult to describe the emotion, but seeing St Pat’s on news web sites — with the police vans in the news footage, the quotes from parents and former students — it has literally been heart-breaking. It is surreal to reconcile this tragedy with my (for the most part, very happy) memories of the place, or to know that my next visit to Shorncliffe won’t be the same. Every visit to an Australian news web site has been a kick in the guts these past few days.

From the SMH:

Mother Natalie Smoothy, whose son attends the Catholic college, verbalised what was etched on every parent’s face.

“How did this happen in a little, quiet, beautiful part of the world?” she said.

Absolutely.

I used to have a photo of my senior class lying around somewhere on my server. I hope I haven’t lost it. In lieu, here is my “baggy green” from the 1st XI side (1982). Certa bonum certamen.

Scan

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I hear a homophone here

Tuesday February 9, 2010

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 1:59 am

The ABC’s online political correspondent Emma Rodgers reports on goings-on from the Coalition party room:

Mr Abbott’s comments were met with a hearty “here here” from many MPs in the room.

No. I’m sure what was said was “hear, hear”.

As Wiki notes:

It is often incorrectly spelled “here here”, especially on websites and IM.

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Bayes in Space

Sunday February 7, 2010

Filed under: statistics — jackman @ 4:51 pm

Amazon just alerted me to a new publication, Bayesian Methods in Cosmology. “Far out”.

Screen Shot 2010-02-07 At 4.34.26 Pm

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