Monday December 20, 2010
Ricky Gervais, nice one, in the blog section of the WSJ, http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2010/12/19/a-holiday-message-from-ricky-gervais-why-im-an-atheist/
Why donâ€™t I believe in God? No, no no, why do YOU believe in God? Surely the burden of proof is on the believer. You started all this. If I came up to you and said, â€œWhy donâ€™t you believe I can fly?â€ Youâ€™d say, â€œWhy would I?â€ Iâ€™d reply, â€œBecause itâ€™s a matter of faith.â€ If I then said, â€œProve I canâ€™t fly. Prove I canâ€™t fly see, see, you canâ€™t prove it can you?â€ Youâ€™d probably either walk away, call security or throw me out of the window and shout, â€˜â€™Fâ€”ing fly then you lunatic.â€
Sunday December 19, 2010
Aquaplaning up the 405! Rainy Sunday night in LA.
Uneventful flight down from SFO. 757. Seat 2A. 28R departure, no x-rwy ops at SFO due to wind associated with this foul weather. Cloud for most of the flight.
Atypical arrival pattern to Lax, south and then a left turn for final, almost always we fly Malibu thence Santa Monica with a right turn over downtown for final. Pouring rain at touchdown and taxi.
Saturday December 18, 2010
A report on the rebuild of Terminal 2 at SFO, to be used by American and Virgin America.
Only 3 terminals have been designed and constructed in the US since 9/11.
Monday December 6, 2010
Brad Efron continues his long exploration of the implications of James-Stein, empirical Bayes etc: tomorrow (Tuesday) in Stanford Stats, 4.15pm.
Tweedieâ€™s formula and selection bias
Suppose the statistician observes some large number of estimates z_i each of which is unbiased for its unobserved true mean \mu_i. The largest say 10 of the z_i are likely to substantially overestimate their corresponding \mu_i, this being â€œselection bias,â€ or â€œregression to the mean.â€ Tweedieâ€™s formula, first reported by Robbins in 1956, offers a simple empirical Bayes approach for correcting selection bias. I will discuss its merits and limitations, in terms of some examples and a little bit of theory relating to the Jamesâ€“Stein estimator.
Interesting take on “selection bias”, a little different to the way the term gets used in polisci/econ etc. For instance, one might substitute the words “measurement error” for “selection bias” and I imagine that a lot of the results still apply.
Thursday December 2, 2010
I taught for a week at Juan March in Madrid, which was great fun.
My family came over as well and we spent the week of Thanksgiving back poking around: Barcelona, up into the south of France via the Pyrenees, San Sebastian and Bilbao, then back to Madrid. Just over 2000kms, 7 days on the road. Unforgettable, even in late November.
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