• My book, Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences (Wiley; Amazon).
• 111th U.S. Congress ideal point estimates (updated daily).
  Senate: PDF, CSV.
  House: PDF, CSV, scatterplot vs Obama vote share.
• Next Australian election, Centrebet prob. of ALP win: 0.77 (2009-11-24, time-series)

Some slides from a talk I gave at a conference sponsored by the American Political Science Association on “Democracy Audits and Governmental Indicators” at the University of California, Berkeley, October 30-31, 2009. The graphic below shows the estimates of country-level democracy for the year 2000 (with marginal 95% credible intervals) that Shawn Treier and I estimated using the Polity IV indicators (a better quality version appears in the slides).

Plus an early attempt at cross-national measurement of regime type (complete with uncertainty bounds), a nice parting gift from our host, Henry Brady.