• My book: Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences (Wiley; Amazon).
• 111th U.S. Senate ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV last updated February 06 2010
• 111th U.S. House ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV, last updated February 05 2010
  • scatterplot vs Obama vote share PDF SVG
• Next Australian election, Centrebet prob. of ALP win: 0.78 (2010-02-10, time-series)

Here is a quick look at how Democrats split on the House vote on the Affordable Health Care for America Act, as a (logistic) function of Obama vote in their district.

Davis (AL-7) and Kucinch (OH-10) are the big “errors” among the “Noe” votes; Kucinch had been telegraphing his opposition to a too meek reform bill for some time. Davis is the same boat (“is this the best we can do?“).

Marion Berry (AR-1) is the biggest “error” among the “Aye” votes; he voted yes while representing an Arkansas district where McCain got 59% of the vote and Obama just 38% (but, perhaps reflecting much about that part of Arkansas, he was unopposed in the 2008 Congressional elections) and he seems to have long history of being in the forefront of Democratic reform efforts on health care.

Update: a nice take on the Dems voting Noe from the NYTimes.