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pre-poll numbers? (and Hasluck, Brisbane)

Wednesday August 25, 2010

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 6:12 pm

Will the AEC give us a break-out of pre-poll voting?

I see we have pre-poll numbers in Hasluck, but not in Brisbane, two seat counts we’re all watching pretty closely.

Wyatt (Lib) beat Jackson (ALP) in Hasluck in ordinary 2PP votes 50.22 to 49.78, is behind on the absentee count (48.54 to 51.46), but is cleaning up in pre-polls 52.22/47.78 and postals 54.08/45.92. That one must be close to being over, I would think. The margin is going in the wrong way for Jackson, now out to 50.47/49.53 overall, and a margin of 350 votes.

We have a postal vote and absentee vote breakout for Brisbane, but no separate pre-poll numbers. Gambaro (Lib) is ahead with about a 190 vote margin (2PP), 50.3 to 49.7. Absentees and postals are going for Arch Bevis 56.5/43.5 so far; he’ll need a few more postals to maybe scrape over the line, but he could run out of postal voters to count.

Brisbane is currently the tightest seat count going and lagging a little in the counting, relative to say Hasluck or Corangamite.

Update (3.30pm August 26, AEST): Brisbane postals are now running 52.2 vs 47.8 against the Labor incumbent; a margin of about 100 votes there. Absentees about the same margin, but running the other way. Overall, the Coalition candidate Gambaro is ahead by 650 votes, roughly the lead she recorded in ordinary votes, the seat currently showing 50.5 to 49.5 2PP. That one could be sliding away from Labor. The AEC will stop calling it a “close seat” once the margin gets wider then 0.5 of a percentage point.

Update 5.26pm AEST: Pre-polls being counted separately in 18 divisions now, absentees in 37 and postals in 87. Code below the fold. Brisbane and Hasluck no longer considered “close”.

theURL <- "http://vtr.aec.gov.au/Downloads/HouseFirstPrefsByCandidateByVoteTypeDownload-15508.csv"

voteType <- read.csv(url(theURL),
skip=1,
header=TRUE,
quote="\"",
stringsAsFactors=FALSE)

vars <- c("OrdinaryVotes","AbsentVotes","ProvisionalVotes",
"PrePollVotes","PostalVotes","TotalVotes")

out <- NULL
for(v in vars){
theVar <- voteType[,match(v,names(voteType))]
out <- cbind(out,
tapply(theVar,voteType$DivisionNm,sum,na.rm=TRUE))
}

z <- apply(out,2,function(x)sum(x!=0))
names(z) <- vars
print(z)

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