Thursday August 26, 2010
We’re starting to get more divisions reporting two-candidate preferred numbers by vote type. The emerging picture (literally) is one in which Labor’s performance on the pre-polls and postals is lagging its performance in ordinary votes. On the other hand, Labor seems to be doing well among absentee voters (the regression line sitting above the 45 degree line).
These numbers are in flux, and the graph below will change a little.
Details: each panel shows a scatterplot between Labor’s 2PP percentage of the vote in ordinary votes (horizontal axis) and other forms of voting (absentee, pre-poll, postal). Each plotted point is an electoral division (in which the Labor candidate is one of the two-candidate-preferred candidates). The gray line is a 45 degree line; if Labor’s 2PP vote shares were the same irrespective of the type of ballot, we’d have the data falling on this line. If the points tend to lie below that line, we have evidence of Labor doing better in the “ordinary” voting. The dark line is a linear regression.
Continuously updated PDF; preview JPG below.