Wednesday August 29, 2012
I created the following graph to look at how current estimates of Obama 2-party vote share in each state compares with how Obama actually did in 2008. The state-by-state 2012 estimates come from the work I’m doing for HuffPost’s Pollster.
The usual way one might make this graph is to simply do a scatterplot. But I also like this form of presentation.
I’ve employed a non-linear scaling of the vote shares (or 2012 voting intentions), devoting more of the graph’s area to interesting states close to the 50-50 point (the purple bar marks 50-50).
Right now, North Carolina and Indiana are the losses for Obama. Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin are very close to the edge. Some more/better polls from these places would be terrific, by the way…