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2012 (thus far) vs 2008: visualizing the swing

Wednesday August 29, 2012

Filed under: politics,statistics — jackman @ 8:11 am

I created the following graph to look at how current estimates of Obama 2-party vote share in each state compares with how Obama actually did in 2008. The state-by-state 2012 estimates come from the work I’m doing for HuffPost’s Pollster.

The usual way one might make this graph is to simply do a scatterplot. But I also like this form of presentation.

I’ve employed a non-linear scaling of the vote shares (or 2012 voting intentions), devoting more of the graph’s area to interesting states close to the 50-50 point (the purple bar marks 50-50).

Right now, North Carolina and Indiana are the losses for Obama. Iowa, Colorado, Florida, Wisconsin are very close to the edge. Some more/better polls from these places would be terrific, by the way…

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