Thursday November 8, 2012
I’ve had numerous requests for various outputs from my model, so I’ll put them up here.
1. Forecast win probabilities for Obama, by unit, by day. These were the quantities also requested by a group of researchers working at Penn, who will use Brier scoring to assess various probabilistic forecasts of the state-by-state outcomes.
A summary of how well the final (Election morning) state-by-state probabilities performed is shown in the attached graph, which plots Obama 2-party vote share (using data from this afternoon from AP) against the probabilities from my model.
The probabilities are the data I’ve presented in this graph:
The data themselves are here (CSV). The final set of probabilities also appear in the file I link to below.
2. State level predictions, Obama 2-party vote share, plus uncertainty assessments. The comparison with actual state-level outcomes appears in the following scatterplot (the diagonal line is a 45 degree line).
Data here (CSV). One of the columns is the final probability of Obama win, if you are looking for that.