Saturday November 10, 2012
I tweeted earlier that the correlation between 2012 and 2008 state-level, Democratic, two-party vote shares is .982. Take out (the outlier) DC and this goes down to .976.
Here’s another look at the data, comparing 04, 08 and 12. More on this later (as well as overlaying the national two-party vote shares), but we have stories that go along with Alaska, Hawaii, New Jersey (!), Utah, over these three elections.
What is striking is how the swing stayed small where Obama and Co. needed it to stay small. Big swings against them in Indiana and the South didn’t matter.