Friday July 19, 2013
The last two weeks have produced a similar pattern in Centrebet’s betting market. (1) Good news for Labor in polls released early in the week sees some support for Labor. (2) The Coalition’s price drifts out to levels that attract some punter interest (e.g., 1.35 to 1.40), and the market comes back to the status quo by the end of the week.
It is interesting to consider just what kind of signal from the polls the betting markets would want before swinging close to even-money.
The market fluctuations of the last
month week are in the attached graph.
We’re getting close to an arbitrage opportunity between the 3.30 Labor price at Centrebet and the 1.42 for the Coalition at Tom Waterhouse (the prices as I type this). Just a 1.007 over-round there.