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Forde flips on back of Beattie bid news

Wednesday August 7, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 5:21 pm

Labor’s price has come in from 1.75 (sportsbet) and 2.05 (Centrebet) to 1.20 and 1.25 respectively.

The implied probability of a Labor win in Forde is 68% and 71%, up from 47% and 42%. Meh.

Labor expected seat count: 61.

Forde’s really changed its status in my probability by margin plot.

Three probable Labor pickups in the top left quadrant of the graph: Forde, Melbourne (from the Greens), Brisbane.

The betting markets still tip 11 probable Labor loses, lower right quadrant.

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