Wednesday August 7, 2013
Labor’s price has come in from 1.75 (sportsbet) and 2.05 (Centrebet) to 1.20 and 1.25 respectively.
The implied probability of a Labor win in Forde is 68% and 71%, up from 47% and 42%. Meh.
Labor expected seat count: 61.
Forde’s really changed its status in my probability by margin plot.
Three probable Labor pickups in the top left quadrant of the graph: Forde, Melbourne (from the Greens), Brisbane.
The betting markets still tip 11 probable Labor loses, lower right quadrant.