Friday August 9, 2013
Centrebet’s prices have moved this morning, Labor now out to
4.90 5.50, the Coalition in to 1.18 1.15, for an implied probability of a Labor win of less than 20% ( 19.4% 17.3%). Galaxy must be due to drop some numbers soon, perhaps in the Sunday News tabloids. We’ll also have Morgan’s mega-multi-mode melange and Essential’s two-week rolling average released early next week. The leader’s debate might also bring out some other polling.
I’m also publishing the GA poll average here on my own blog: see the growing list of Australian election stats and links appearing in the header of my blog, above.
The model-based average gets updated as we enter new polls into the database, along with a graph showing the trajectory of the model’s estimate of ALP 2PP voting intentions over the last 90 days: