where will the two-party preferred result land?

Monday September 23, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 7:06 pm

We’re still waiting for TPP counts in 10 “non-classic” seats. With the TPP counting basically done in the other 140 seats, Labor has 46.61% TPP.

We’ll know soon enough, but my very rough guess goes something like this:
Screen Shot 2013-09-23 at 7.02.12 PM

That is, Labor picks up TPP swings against it in the 10 non-classic divisions awaiting TPP counts. I weight my rough guesses in these seats by each seat’s enrollment, getting 42.92% ALP TPP there. These 10 seats have total enrollment of 933K, which goes up against the 46.61% from the 14.7M – 933K of the electorate in the 140 seats with a TPP count. Overall result: about 46.4%.

But this estimate is as rough as guts, as they say… All the same, this would put the 2013 result in 1996 territory, where Labor got 46.37% TPP.

Update: another approach to the data generates a similar estimate. The 10 non-classic seats in 2013 produced 46.84% ALP TPP in 2010. The remaining 140 classic seats gave us 50.34%, the difference being 3.5 percentage points. The weighted combination of the 10 “non-classic” plus 140 “classic” divisions in 2010 is 50.12%, the overall 2010 ALP TPP result.

If we get that 3.5 percentage point classic/non-classic difference this year, then the 10 non-classic divisions will come in at 46.61-3.5 = 43.11% ALP TPP. This implies an overall ALP TPP result of 46.39%, again in 1996 territory.

We’d need the 10 non-classic divisions to produce something like 40.5% ALP TPP for the overall ALP TPP result to get down to 46.2% (the last point estimate I produced from my poll averaging machinery ahead of the election). We still might get there, but these rough estimates as to ALP TPP among the non-classic divisions suggests 46.3-46.5 might be more like it.

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