• My book: Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences (Wiley; Amazon).
• 111th U.S. Senate ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV last updated February 06 2010
• 111th U.S. House ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV, last updated February 05 2010
  • scatterplot vs Obama vote share PDF SVG
• Next Australian election, Centrebet prob. of ALP win: 0.78 (2010-02-10, time-series)

Perhaps it was the marginal seats Newspoll, perhaps someone has splurged big on Labor at Centrebet, but wow, Centrebet has Labor at 1.20 to the Coalition’s 4.60 (!), an implied probability of a Labor win of .793. Thats higher than we’ve seen at any point in the cycle, and higher than the Coalition closed in 2004.

Portlandbet has Labor on 1.30 and the Coalition at 3.50, and so there is actually a tiny arbitrage profit of 1.36% to be made.

Full details here, but Bowman has crossed over into favoring Labor (averaged across 3 agencies), to make it 78 seats in which Labor is the favorite; again Centrebet is the mover there:

+-------------+------------+----------+------+------+---------+---------+
| agency      | date       | division | ALP  | Coal | Other   | ALPprob |
+-------------+------------+----------+------+------+---------+---------+
| portlandbet | 2007-11-16 | Bowman   |  1.8 |  1.9 |     141 |  0.5102 |
| sportingbet | 2007-11-16 | Bowman   |  1.8 |  1.9 |      34 |  0.4999 |
| centrebet   | 2007-11-16 | Bowman   | 1.95 | 1.75 | 89.2824 |  0.4681 |
| portlandbet | 2007-11-17 | Bowman   |  1.8 |  1.9 |     141 |  0.5102 |
| sportingbet | 2007-11-17 | Bowman   |  1.8 |  1.9 |      34 |  0.4999 |
| centrebet   | 2007-11-17 | Bowman   | 1.83 | 1.87 | 159.374 |  0.5025 |
+-------------+------------+----------+------+------+---------+---------+

Wentworth markets remain closed. No great movement in Bennelong to report. I’m headed over there this afternoon for a wander around Eastwood etc to catch some retail politics…and maybe just some retail as well.