• My book: Bayesian Analysis for the Social Sciences (Wiley; Amazon).
• 111th U.S. Senate ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV last updated February 06 2010
• 111th U.S. House ideal point estimates:
  • PDF, CSV, last updated February 05 2010
  • scatterplot vs Obama vote share PDF SVG
• Next Australian election, Centrebet prob. of ALP win: 0.78 (2010-02-10, time-series)

Past midnight here, so Happy Election Day.

Many jitters here in Canberra and elsewhere in reaction to the conflicting polls. I blogged on this over at The Bullring. See this comment thread and Peter Mumble Brent and I on the ABC’s PM show this afternoon.

Could this be Morgan’s election, running right down the middle with 54.5 2PP for Labor?

Interesting comments to my Unleashed story. Lots of eyeballs over there. Thanks again, Bruce B.

I’m updating my 2PP projections with that last batch of polls laid in. The algorithm (assuming no house effects, an assumption that is almost surely wrong given the dispersed poll results of Thursday) is running now, I will push graphs over here. It will come out at something like 54-46, with the Nielsen and Galaxy/Newspoll estimates split down the middle, right where Morgan is. I am writing a post-election poll assessment piece for the Bullring, a short version of which might make its way into the mag.

I will also hit the betting sites one more time in the early morning hours, before the polls open, for a last capture of data. The Coalition firmed markedly in the afternoon hours as the Newspoll situation started to break. The Coalition was at 4.50 on Centrebet at noon Thursday; 13 hours later it is at 3.50, the probability of a Labor win easing from .788 to .727. That some of the most rapid movement we’ve seen all year.