Morgan phone 57-43, model-based poll average moves to 47.3% Labor TPP

Wednesday August 14, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 10:22 pm

A phone poll by Morgan on August 12 and 13 resulted in 57% TPP for the Coalition, 52% Coalition primary vote, ALP 31%, Greens 9%. n=569.

“Yeah, right.”

And Morgan themselves are pouring cold water on the result:

Gary Morgan says:

“It needs to be remembered that telephone polls are biased towards the party that receives the best publicity. Tony Abbott’s ‘free kick’ from News Corp over the last few days accusing Rudd of cheating in the debate by using notes has no doubt boosted the Opposition Leader’s credibility although his comment yesterday on ‘sex appeal’ was crass, definitely irrelevant and unnecessary. Prediction: You can expect all telephone polls conducted over the next few days to show a jump in support for the Liberal-National Party!”

Maybe, but 57-43?

And the only problem with Morgan trying to downplay this result is that Morgan’s last phone poll before the 2010 election actually did pretty well: a small over-estimate of the Labor primary vote (39 vs 38) and 51% for the Labor TPP (actual was 50.12%). See my GA post on this from yesterday.

In fact, Morgan phone polls have the best track record of the various interview modes they use, based on my recollection of the various analyses I’ve done on this over the years. My model assigns a pretty small house effect to Morgan phone polls (+0.6pp for Labor TPP, +/- 0.5pp). Compare Morgan’s other poll modes: face-to-face, +2.4pp Labor TPP, +/- 0.5pp; multi-mode, +2.1 Labor TPP, +/- 0.5pp.

Prior to this Morgan phone poll coming in the model was putting Labor in the high 47s. Even with the small nominal n of this poll (569), the Bayesian compromise has to move in the direction of the new data point (43%, modulo the small house effect estimate). Accordingly, my calculations suggest that the new estimate is 47.3% Labor TPP +/- 1.5pp.

New numbers and graphs will appear at the links etc in the header of my blog in the next few hours.

This poll is one of the “worst-fitting” data points I’ve got in the data set of 261 polls I’m currently working with, 2010-present. That is, given all the other polling, given the estimate of the (small) Morgan phone house effect, something like 48% Labor TPP would have been more like it, +/- 4.6pp, given the small nominal sample size. 43% Labor TPP under these circumstances is, well, an unusual result given what else we’re observing, and all that we’ve observed about the performance of Morgan phone polls in the past.

This influence of this data point will get steam-rollered by the next round of polling, but for now, there it is…

Comments (3)

cricket and politics

Monday August 12, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics,general — jackman @ 11:09 am

Utterly unscientific, but I can’t help but think the incumbent (Labor) would be doing better if Australia had a better cricket side right now.

Screen Shot 2013-08-12 at 11.08.41 AM

Comments (7)

Nielsen 52-48 moves poll average to 48.1% ALP 2PP, Centrebet follows

Friday August 9, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 6:47 pm

Nielsen’s 52-48 (n=1400) poll (png from GhostWhoVotes) bumped my Guardian Australia poll average a little, Labor moving from 48.2% TPP to 48.1% TPP, a new post-Rudd-return low.

Centrebet’s prices have moved this morning, Labor now out to 4.90 5.50, the Coalition in to 1.18 1.15, for an implied probability of a Labor win of less than 20% (19.4% 17.3%). Galaxy must be due to drop some numbers soon, perhaps in the Sunday News tabloids. We’ll also have Morgan’s mega-multi-mode melange and Essential’s two-week rolling average released early next week. The leader’s debate might also bring out some other polling.

I’m also publishing the GA poll average here on my own blog: see the growing list of Australian election stats and links appearing in the header of my blog, above.

The model-based average gets updated as we enter new polls into the database, along with a graph showing the trajectory of the model’s estimate of ALP 2PP voting intentions over the last 90 days:

Comments (13)

Forde flips on back of Beattie bid news

Wednesday August 7, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 5:21 pm

Labor’s price has come in from 1.75 (sportsbet) and 2.05 (Centrebet) to 1.20 and 1.25 respectively.

The implied probability of a Labor win in Forde is 68% and 71%, up from 47% and 42%. Meh.

Labor expected seat count: 61.

Forde’s really changed its status in my probability by margin plot.

Three probable Labor pickups in the top left quadrant of the graph: Forde, Melbourne (from the Greens), Brisbane.

The betting markets still tip 11 probable Labor loses, lower right quadrant.

Comments (2)

Labor close to post-Rudd lows at Centrebet

Tuesday August 6, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 6:20 pm

Labor’s out to 4.50 4.80 at Centrebet, the Coalition in to 1.20 1.18, for an implied ALP win probability of 21% 19.7%.

That just about takes us back to June 27, when Labor’s price came back in from beyond $5.00 on the back of Rudd’s return to the leadership.

Just one week ago (noon July 31) Labor was at 33% (2.90 to 1.40).

Labor’s post-Rudd peak at Centrebet was around 35% on July 16 (2.70 to 1.45).

Comments (6)

Newspoll the market mover (redux redux redux)

Monday July 22, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 10:22 am

52-48 TPP to the Coalition overnight from Newspoll (The Australian).

The betting markets haven’t wasted anytime responding. Indeed, Labor’s price could ease further through the day as news of the poll (and spin re poll) circulates.

As a result, the 1st digit is a “2”, not a “3”, on the probability of a Labor win, implied by the prices; see the graphs (links at the header of the blog), at least for now. Thats still a long way up from pre-Rudd levels, but a long way short of 50% or better.

Implied ALP win probability over the last week, at the 3 bookies I’m following closely (click for larger view):

Screen Shot 2013-07-22 at 10.18.36 AM

Newspoll’s influence on Australian political discourse and indicators like the betting markets is really something to behold. I’ve blogged on it numerous time over the years here (e.g., Nov 2011; May 2010; Nov 2007; Sept 2007). This topic is something I’ll try to expand on my piece this week for the Guardian Australia.

Comments Off on Newspoll the market mover (redux redux redux)

polls and markets, ups and downs

Friday July 19, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 9:29 pm

The last two weeks have produced a similar pattern in Centrebet’s betting market. (1) Good news for Labor in polls released early in the week sees some support for Labor. (2) The Coalition’s price drifts out to levels that attract some punter interest (e.g., 1.35 to 1.40), and the market comes back to the status quo by the end of the week.

It is interesting to consider just what kind of signal from the polls the betting markets would want before swinging close to even-money.

The market fluctuations of the last month week are in the attached graph.

We’re getting close to an arbitrage opportunity between the 3.30 Labor price at Centrebet and the 1.42 for the Coalition at Tom Waterhouse (the prices as I type this). Just a 1.007 over-round there.

Screen Shot 2013-07-19 at 9.14.25 PM

Comments (2)

watching the Liberal leadership betting markets

Thursday July 18, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 5:45 pm

Per my Guardian Australia column this week, I’m just keeping an eye on this one…

I’ve added a current snapshot of the Centrebet and sportsbet Liberal leadership betting markets to the header of my blog.

The sportsbet market has 12 contenders, including Peter Costello at $81, Wyatt Roy at $1001, etc. The Centrebet market has just 6.

No time series graphs to report just yet. We’ll see how it goes.

Comments (5)

low altitude alert on 28L, SFO, portent of Asiana crash?

Monday July 8, 2013

Filed under: flight nerdery,general — jackman @ 4:36 pm

So the Asiana crash landing at SFO reminded me of the following weird coincidence.

One week ago, on July 1, I flew SFO-LHR on UAL 930. The pilot piped through ATC on Ch 9 (one of the nerdy things I like about flying United).

Just before we were given our takeoff clearance, SFO tower alerted an incoming flight to 28L that it was too low. The flight in question was UAL 1601 (IAH-SFO).

28L is the same runway that Asiana was trying to land on, with ILS out this summer; they’ve being doing some work on the runway there.

I went to the liveatc.net audio archive to download the KSFO tower comms from that day and time (mp3). Note that liveatc.net timestamps in Zulu time and stores 30 minute archives.

At about the 23:38 minute mark comes the low altitude alert from SFO tower to UAL 1601:

TWR: “Low altitude alert United 1601, check your altitude. San Francisco altimeter two niner eight three”.

A brief response follows, presumably from UAL 1601.

At the time I thought “wow, you don’t hear that often”. And I forgot all about it until the Asiana crash.

Pretty cool you can go recover that from liveatc.net.

Comments (2)

1100 days as Prime Minister?

Sunday June 30, 2013

Filed under: Australian Politics — jackman @ 7:36 pm

Gillard was Prime Minister for 1100 days, from June 24 2010 until June 27 2013 (inclusive).

Rudd’s 1st term as PM, December 3 2007 until June 24 2010, was 935 days (inclusive). His 2nd term as PM started on June 27 2013.

December 8 2013 would be Rudd’s 1100th day as PM.

If there’s going to be a change of government, its likely to have happened prior to this date.

Just saying.

Comments (1)
« Previous PageNext Page »

Powered by WordPress