Sydney Area: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Sydney Metro: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Sydney Harbourside: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Melbourne Area: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Melbourne Metro: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

South-East Queensland: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Brisbane Metro: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Perth Region: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

Adelaide Region: ALP 2PP - 2PP swing to ALP

ALP Two-Party Preferred, by Seat:

Two-Party Preferred Swing to ALP, by Seat:

State-specific "pendulums", based on 2007 two-party preferred results PDF
(time last changed: 1:50 am December 10 2007 Sydney time)

Pre-election, state-by-state pendulums. Based on 2004 results or notional results if an electoral redistribution has intervened since the 2004 election (i.e., NSW and QLD seats). Vertical axis is swing, relative to the 2004 or notional baselines, and is scaled non-linearly, so as to devote more of the available plotting region to the politically interesting region around the status quo. Colors indicate party presently holding the seat (blue for Libs, green for Nats, red for Labor, and black for Independents). The red horizontal reference lines indicate the ALP's best two-party preferred (2PP) performance in the particular state. The ALP can win 76 seats in the 150 seat House of Representatives, a gain of 16 seats (16 blue dots on the graph), with a uniform 2PP swing of 4.85 percentage points, with Dobell (NSW) the last seat over the line under this (implausible) scenario, no seats gained in Victoria, a clean sweep of Tasmania's five seats, and Moreton and Bonner the only seats to change hands in Queensland. PDF
(time last changed: 3:28 pm September 21 2007 Sydney time)

Results of fitting a local linear trend, state-space model to polling data from Galaxy, Morgan, Newspoll and ACNielsen. The unknown state variable is Labor's share of the two-party preferred vote, considered on a daily time scale, and also the trend in this variable, again on a daily time scale. The trend variable evolves via a random walk, which in turn induces dynamics in the unknown levels of Labor vote share; we learn about both level and trend in ALP 2PP support from the polling data. The choice of this specific model is somewhat ad hoc, but it seems to fit pretty well, and alternative specifications provide essentially identical results. This version discards the Morgan face-to-face polls (since they seem so patently biased in a pro-Labor direction), and treats the remaining polls as free of any house effects. My thanks to Andrea Abel for research assistance, and to Peter (Mumble) Brent for helping me round up some hard-to-find polling data.

Daily series, ALP share of the two-party preferred voting intentions. PDF
(time last changed: 9:45 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Daily series, ALP share of the two-party preferred voting intentions, zoomed in on the pre-election period. Labor appears to be headed for a result around 54%, two-party preferred. PDF
(time last changed: 9:45 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Daily series, trend in ALP share of the two-party preferred voting intentions. PDF
(time last changed: 9:45 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Daily series, trend in ALP share of the two-party preferred voting intentions, zoomed in on the pre-election period. PDF
(time last changed: 9:45 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Database last updated at 06:01 November 24 2007 AEST

Analysis tracks prices offered by three agencies: Centrebet, Portlandbet, Sportingbet

ALP tipped to Win in 0 of 150 seats
(i.e., the number of seats with average ALP win prob > .5)

ALP Expected Seat Count (sum of the 150 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities): 0 (Yesterday: 0)

National Market, 3 agency average probability of Labor win: 0.759 (Yesterday: 0.759)

National Market:

Agency	ALP	Coalition	ALP Probability
centrebet	1.24	3.90	0.759

Bennelong Market:

Agency	ALP	Coalition	Other	ALP Probability

5 biggest daily changes in average ALP win probabilities:

Division	2009-11-07	2009-11-06	Change
National	0.759	0.759	0.000

10 biggest 7 day changes in average ALP win probabilities:

Division	2009-11-07	2009-10-31	Change
National	0.759	0.759	0.000

Seat-by-seat implied probabilities of Labor victory (averaged across the 3 agencies I am following), plotted against by 2004/notional 2PP margin PDF
(time last changed: 6:01 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Time-series plot of seat-by-seat implied probabilities of Labor wins, daily frequency, August 13 onwards. PDF
(time last changed: 9:49 am November 24 2007 Sydney time)

Time-series for specific seats (PDFs): Bass Bennelong Blair Bonner Boothby Bowman Braddon Canning Corangamite Cowan Deakin Dobell Grey Hasluck Herbert Kingston LaTrobe Longman Macarthur Makin McMillan Moreton NorthSydney Page Parramatta Paterson Petrie Robertson Solomon Stirling Swan Wakefield Wentworth